A network analysis of the volatility of high dimensional financial series

摘要

Interconnectedness between stocks and firms plays a crucial role in the volatility contagion phenomena that characterize financial crises, and graphs are a natural tool in their analysis. We propose graphical methods for an analysis of volatility interconnections in the Standard & Poor's 100 data set during the period 2000-2013, which contains the 2007-2008 Great Financial Crisis. The challenges are twofold: first, volatilities are not directly observed and must be extracted from time series of stock returns; second, the observed series, with about 100 stocks, is high dimensional, and curse-of-dimensionality problems are to be faced. To overcome this double challenge, we propose a dynamic factor model methodology, decomposing the panel into a factor-driven and an idiosyncratic component modelled as a sparse vector auto-regressive model. The inversion of this auto-regression, along with suitable identification constraints, produces networks in which, for a given horizon h, the weight associated with edge (i, j) represents the h-step-ahead forecast error variance of variable i accounted for by variable j's innovations. Then, we show how those graphs yield an assessment of how systemic each firm is. They also demonstrate the prominent role of financial firms as sources of contagion during the 2007-2008 crisis.