Economics: An Empirical Science Capable of Forecasting Economic Events?

摘要

Mainstream economics is based on an idealized model of the economy. Unlike empirical sciences, such as physics or natural science, it is not based on observation and empirical data but on an abstract concept of economic rationality. As a consequence, economic forecasts based on mainstream economic theory are highly uncertain. To arrive at better forecasts of economic and financial phenomena, Sergio Focardi and Frank Fabozzi argue that we need to take a scientific approach to economics, one based on data. In particular, they suggest that we consider the true complexity of economic systems, including the impact of financial systems on the economy and vice-versa.