Comparative reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes

摘要

This paper deals with reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes. Failure is expressed by multiple response variables. Different methods can be used to assess failure probability, primary among them are the time-independent and out-crossing (up-crossing) rate methods. This paper describes the procedure for performing reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes by the out-crossing rate method. Alternative methods based on piecewise linear or continuous modeling of failure surface are explored for calculating the out-crossing rate and compared. The methods are exemplified by calculating the conditional probability of a damaged double hull oil tanker under combined vertical and horizontal bending moments.