Nonlinear exchange rate predictability

摘要

We study whether the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate can help us account for the lack of predictability of the nominal exchange rate. We construct a smooth nonlinear error-correction model that allows us to test the hypotheses of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and nonlinear behavior on the real exchange rate in the context of a fully specified cointegrated system. Using a panel of 19 countries and three numeraires, we find evidence of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and of nonlinear mean reversion of the real exchange rate. Out-of-sample Theil's U -statistics show a higher forecast precision of the nonlinear model than the one obtained with a random walk specification. Although the robustness of the out-of-sample results over different forecast windows is somewhat limited, we are able to obtain significant predictability gains-from a parsimonious structural model with PPP fundamentals-even at short-run horizons.