Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Hydrology in Huang-Huai-Hai Region in China Using the PRECIS and VIC Models

摘要

The climate change impact on hydrology in China's Huang-Huai-Hai (H-H-H) region was assessed in this study. Both variations in mean monthly and annual runoff and occurrences of extreme events including flood and drought were examined for two future periods (2001-2030 and 2016-2045) in the whole region. The projected daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation from the PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) regional climate model were used to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrology model. Variable infiltration capacity was run over a regional domain of 408 grid points at a spatial resolution of 50 x 50 km. The result shows that PRECIS projects increase in both future temperature (0.8-1.5°C) and precipitation (3.5-7.3%) in the H-H-H region under A2 and B2 scenarios of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Over the entire H-H-H region, VIC projects increase 11.3 and 13.7% in mean annual runoff by the 2015s (2001-2030) and 2030s (2016-2045) under the A2 scenario, respectively. Such increases would be 5.6 and 5.9% under the B2 scenario. The spatial temporal variation of mean annual runoff is likely uneven. For example, the mean annual runoff could decrease by 10% in the south of the Haihe River basin by the 2015s under the B2 scenario. However, an increase of 10% is likely to occur in the northeast part of the same basin. For the mean monthly runoff, the increase would be significant from July through October, and the runoff could exhibit a great interannual variability. Extreme events such as droughts and severe floods could become more frequent in certain areas of the H-H-H region. The occurrence of drought events is likely to increase in summer and autumn seasons in. most areas of the H-H-H region. Severe floods might also frequently occur in the Huaihe River basin.