The Rural Exodus of Young Farmers and its Impact on the Shortage of Labor and Food Crop Production in Cameroon: A Computable General Equilibrium Model's Analysis

摘要

Using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper evaluates the impact of rural exodus on rural labor scarcity and domestic output and export of food crops in Cameroon. Model results indicate that, when 5 to 40 per cent of villagers migrate to the city, the urban unskilled labor force increases from +22.04 to +176.29 per cent. For the same rural-to-city migration rate, the domestic output of food crops falls down from -1.95 to -21.27 per cent, the export of food crops also drops down from -6.02 to -44.56 per cent, and the rural labor wage increases from +6.03 to +75.00 per cent whereas the urban unskilled labor wage rather decreases from -18.35 to -64.27 per cent. In order to limit rural exodus and its negative effects in rural areas, the government should implement policies which improve the productivity of the rural farmers such as a well improved social security system for health, a fairly land distribution, the award of credit, subsidy or higher wage for machine acquisition.