Estimation of radionuclide (Cs-137) emission rates from a nuclear power plant accident using the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM)

摘要

A methodology for the estimation of the emission rate of Cs-137 by the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the use of monitored Cs-137 concentrations around a nuclear power plant has been developed. This method has been employed with the MM5 meteorological model in the 600 km x 600 km model domain with the horizontal grid scale of 3 km x 3 km centered at the Fukushima nuclear power plant to estimate Cs-137 emission rate for the accidental period from 00 UTC 12 March to 00 UTC 6 April 2011. The Lagrangian Particles are released continuously with the rate of one particle per minute at the first level modelled, about 15 m above the power plant site. The presently developed method was able to simulate quite reasonably the estimated Cs-137 emission rate compared with other studies, suggesting the potential usefulness of the present method for the estimation of the emission rate from the accidental power plant without detailed inventories of reactors and fuel assemblies and spent fuels. The advantage of this method is not so complicated but can be applied only based on one-time forward LPDM simulation with monitored concentrations around the power plant, in contrast to other inverse models. It was also found that continuously monitored radionuclides concentrations from possibly many sites located in all directions around the power plant are required to get accurate continuous emission rates from the accident power plant. The current methodology can also be used to verify the previous version of radionuclides emissions used among other modeling groups for the cases of intermittent or discontinuous samplings. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.