SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR: THE GEOPOLITICAL AND GEO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF AN ENERGY MEGA-PROJECT

摘要

The prolific opportunities for geopolitical influence provided by the SGC are surprising. Italy, Turkey, and Russia have claimed the most important positions having the greatest level of involvement in the projects' ownership, financing, production, consumption, and transit. Azerbaijan, Iran, and the United Kingdom also hold statistically significant levels of influence. Interestingly, the EU first initiated this project and subsequently provided much of its of funding. Yet after the United Kingdom's exit, it will only be represented by Italy among nations with the most significant geopolitical impact. The influence of the EU's other trillion-dollar economies-Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands-may be present but will not be in the forefront. Another surprise revealed in this examination was the breadth of its potential influence over global relations. While this is a comprehensive view of the SGC, it is not exhaustive. More than 50 nations have been named, however, there remain several additional countries that have interests in the SGC. For example, Libya provides a small volume of piped gas to the EU, and Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea all provide small volumes of LNG. Any of these nations could be pushed out of the European market with the development of the SGC. Still other countries may be affected by downstream demand shifts resulting from the new supplies flowing to Europe. Oman, Brunei, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea are all significant LNG producer-exporters and none supply Europe. However, the global reordering of supply and demand will still impact these states. The SGC's vast geography across six countries ranks it among the largest energy developments of all time. Its anticipated outcomes may permanently alter global gas markets and reshuffle the regional political order. Its total cost places it among the very largest capital projects in human history. But, the number and diversity of the states involved in the SGC hold the greatest intrigue. Coalitions between nations with similar interests will form, evolve, and dissolve over time. Rogue states will attempt to assert their interests rather than cooperate for the greater good. And the SGC will surely be used for leverage in unrelated international negotiations. The SGC is a grand social, political, and economic experiment. Through it we will learn a great deal about global governance versus nationalism.