Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending

摘要

At least since the work of John Maynard Keynes, economists have pondered the ways in which consumer and investor sentiment-what Keynes (1936, Chapter 12) referred to as "animal spirits"-might influence the real economy. Today, the outcome of monthly consumer confidence surveys provides steady fodder for the business and financial press and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In the New York Times alone, more than 15 articles about consumer confidence and its potential impact onthe economy appeared between July 2002 and June 2003. Consumer confidence is often cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan as a key determinant of near-term economic growth (for example, Greenspan, 2002).