The Future of Work in the Twenty-First Century

摘要

The institutional nature of work has changed dramatically over the last three hundred years, and there is no reason to assume that change will cease in the twenty-first century. This article criticizes the theoretical basis for some previous confident predictions, including deskilling (Karl Marx), and massive reductions in the extent of the working day (John Maynard Keynes). I argue that further increases in the complexity and knowledge-intensity of work under capitalism are likely, although not inevitable. I consider some implications of growing complexity for work and the employment contract. Raising the question of possible asymmetries between labor and capital, I address their role in generating future increases in inequality. On the other hand, growing complexity may lead to radical changes in the employment contract and its evolution into a form of quasi-self-employment. But, in an increasingly knowledge-intensive system, those with inadequate training or skills may be left behind. Compensatory policy measures, such as a guaranteed basic income and wealth redistribution, remain on the agenda.