Comprehensive evaluation on the 'maturity' of China's carbon markets

摘要

Given that China has launched the largest carbon market in the world, it is of great significance to evaluate the "maturity" of the China's 7 regional pilot carbon emissions trading system. Based on an in-depth survey of 33 experts from more than 10 related institutions in the 7 pilots, this study develops a carbon market maturity evaluation index system that consists of 4 target layers including the attributes of environment, market and finance, supporting policies and infrastructure, and service capability of trading platform. By combining factor analysis and analytic hierarchy process methods, this study conducts a comprehensive evaluation on the maturity of 7 pilots. The results show that : The maturity of 7 pilots can be clearly categorized into several hierarchies, with Shenzhen (0.8113) ranks first due to its market-oriented mechanism; Beijing (0.5735), Hubei (0.5432), Shanghai (0.5004) and Guangdong (0.4846) are of similar degrees of maturity but with different characteristics - Beijing with most diversified emission controlled entities and strong environmental constraints, Hubei primarily driven by institutional arrangement, Shanghai with outstanding ability of platform service, Guangdong emphasizing on development of its primary market; while Tianjin (0.2616) and Chongqing (0.1338) exhibits lowest level of maturity. Overall, China's 7 pilots are still in their infancy and demonstrate a phenomenon of "low trading volume and superficial prosperity". Therefore, recommendations are brought out that the maturity of China's carbon markets should be promoted from the aspects of tightening environmental constraints, strengthening market capacity-building and cultivating related consulting industry. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.