Study on Storage Reliability Evaluation for Ammunition Using Gibbs Sampler

摘要

For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory, as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation, the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression models for reliability in the random truncated test. These models can reflect the influences of different environments on the ammunition storage lifetime. As an example, the common exponential distribution is used here, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method based on Gibbs sampling dynamically simulates the Markov chain of the parameters' posterior distribution. Also, the parameters' Bayesian estimations are calculated in the random truncated condition. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and directly perceived.