基于可靠性统计分析法的制导弹药储存寿命评估

摘要

针对制导弹药价格昂贵而无法采用大规模性能试验和实弹射击方法进行可靠性研究的问题，采用可靠性统计分析法对制导弹药储存寿命进行评估。通过建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命模型，并以制导弹药火工品中的待发程控装置为研究对象，运用Bayes法对试验数据出现的“倒挂”现象进行了修正。依据修正后的试验数据进行计算，得到了在一定置信度下待发程控装置的储存寿命。%Owing to the high price of guided ammunition, it is unpractical to estimate storage life of guided ammunition through large scale performance test and firing test. Storage life of guided ammunition was evaluated based on reliability statistics. Guided ammunition reliable storage life model was established. Ready-to-fire program control device of guided ammunition was taken as object. The data of reliability test which had upside down phenomenon was corrected by Bayes method. The corrected data was calculated and the storage life of ready-to-fire program control device under a certain confidence level was obtained.