Detection and Selection Decisions with Conditional Feedback: Interaction of Task Uncertainty and Base Rate

摘要

Effects of task uncertainty on decision thresholds in a multiple cue decision task were examined under two types of feedback and three base rate conditions. In most such decision experiments, participants receive feedback after every trial (full feedback) with a single (usually .5) base rate. Our experiment explored conditional (decision-contingent) feedback, in a task representing a detection problem (passenger screening) in which the decision maker receives no feedback unless the decision is positive (search the passenger). Increased uncertainty made all dependent measures worse. Task uncertainty had detrimental effects on both judgment and decision making, and interacted with effects of feedback and base rate. Decision performance was better with full feedback than with conditional feedback, but not by much. There may be no single unifying explanation for results of our base rate manipulation. Conditional feedback generally resulted in fewer positive decisions than full feedback, but not in the low (.1) base rate condition. Results provide partial support for constructivist encoding and for accuracy maximization with moderate and high base rates, but not with a low base rate. Our results indicated lower selection rates with conditional feedback compared with full feedback in moderate and high base rate conditions, and a more exploratory strategy with higher selection rates with conditional feedback compared with full feedback when base rate was low. Copyright (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.