Land Use-Transportation Scenarios and Future Vehicle Travel and Land Consumption

摘要

Problem: Since the late 1980s, U.S. metropolitan regions have increasingly engaged in a style of land use-transportation scenario planning that merges techniques borrowed from military and business strategic planning with long-range transportation systems planning and project-level alternatives analysis. Aside from occasional anecdotal descriptions, the effectiveness of such approaches in generating compact growth plans has not been evaluated comprehensively. Purpose: We analyzed a wide range of scenario planning studies to determine how far compact growth scenarios are predicted to reduce vehicular travel below existing trends.rnMethods: Using hierarchical modeling, we developed a regional vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) model based on 85 scenarios in 23 planning studies from 18 metropolitan areas. Results and conclusions: Using coefficients from this model, we conservatively estimate that compact growth scenarios reduce VMT in 2050 by 17% below scenarios assuming a continuation of existing trends. Takeaway for practice: Existing transportation models remain largely insensitive to changes in land use and transportation policy. This must change for scenario planning to achieve its full potential. In the future, scenario planning should incorporate the best current knowledge about how global economic and environmental trends will affect regions.