Bubbles in UK house prices: evidence from ESTR models

摘要

Recent movements in stock and house prices have led to an examination of the presence of bubbles. Whilst, there is extensive research on stock price data, there is relatively less for house prices. This paper uses a present-value model for house prices to test for the presence of bubbles. The results support the presence of a non-fundamental component within UK national and regional house prices. In particular, for the majority of series considered, evidence is presented of linear non-stationarity within the fundamental present-value relationship, and of nonlinear stationarity, implying the presence of a non-fundamental, or bubble, component. Furthermore, evidence is presented that prices adjust quicker when they are below fundamental equilibrium, than when they are above fundamental equilibrium, I.e. there is downward price stickiness. These results support the hypothesis that house price dynamics can be characterised by price-to-price momentum. Finally, forecast evidence suggests that real prices are likely to adjust downwards and converge with fundamental value.