Value-centric framework and pareto optimality for design and acquisition of communication satellites

摘要

Investments in space systems are substantial, indivisible, and irreversible, characteristics of high-risk investments. Traditional approaches to system design, acquisition, and risk mitigation are derived from a cost-centric mindset, and as such they incorporate little information about the value of the spacecraft to its stakeholders. These traditional approaches are appropriate in stable environments. However, the current technical and economic conditions are distinctly uncertain and rapidly changing. Consequently, these traditional approaches have to be revisited and adapted to the current context.rnWe propose that in uncertain environments, decision-making with respect to design and acquisition choices should be value-based. We develop a value-centric framework, analytical tools, and an illustrative numerical example for communication satellites. Our two proposed metrics for decision-making are the system's expected value and value uncertainty. Expected value is calculated as the expected NPV of the satellite. The cash inflow is calculated as a function of the satellite loading, its transponder pricing, and market demand. The cash outflows are the various costs for owning and operating the satellite. Value uncertainty emerges due to uncertainties in the various cash flow streams, in particular because of market conditions. We propagate market uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation, and translate it into value uncertainty for the satellite. The end result is a portfolio of Pareto-optimal satellite design alternatives.rnBy using value and value uncertainty as decision metrics in the down-selection process, decision-makers draw on more information about the system in its environment, and in making value-based design and acquisition choices, they ultimately make more informed and better choices.