Synthesis and analysis of probabilities of events by non-numeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information

摘要

In this paper, we describe new kinds of events in logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. Following LP risk models are considered: hybrid LP-models, conceptual LP-models and LP-models for the operational risk management in a bank. Techniques of synthesis and analysis of probabilities of initiating events on basis of method of summarised and randomised indexes with use of non-numeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information (NII-information) were developed for LP risk models. 'Expa' software is described with the convenient interface for the synthesis and analysis of probabilities and allocation of resources for change of probabilities of events.