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A Parsimonious Predictive Model of Movie Performance: A Managerial Tool for Supply Chain Members

机译:电影绩效的一个解析预测模型:供应链成员的管理工具

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In this paper, the authors develop a parsimonious model that offers early prediction of potential success of a movie. In order to achieve this, a broad look at the drivers of movie success is required. Supply chain members will be making decisions regarding movie popularity with regard to licensing contracts, forecasting toy purchases, cross-promotions, etc. at varying times before a movie is released. A simple forecasting approach using publicly available data could improve supply chain decision making. Prior literature suggested that the virtual movie stock market, HSX, was a good predictor. Using a small set of variables including view counts, likes, and dislikes did offer some predictive value. However, HSX produces a forecast that dominates prior models while using a single readily available public data. Further, the HSX-based prediction showed consistency and convergence across a significant breadth of time.
机译:在本文中,作者开发了一个解析模型,提供了电影潜在成功的早期预测。为了实现这一目标,需要广泛地看看电影成功的驱动程序。在电影发布之前,供应链成员将决定有关许可合同,预测玩具购买,交叉促销等的电影人气。使用公开数据的简单预测方法可以改善供应链决策。先前文学建议,虚拟电影股市,HSX,是一个很好的预测因素。使用一小组变量,包括视图计数,喜欢和不喜欢确实提供了一些预测价值。但是,HSX会产生预测,该预测在使用单一易用的公共数据时占主导地位的先前模型。此外,基于HSX的预测显示了在显着的时间宽度上的一致性和收敛性。

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