Challenges and strategies of transportation modelling and simulation under extreme conditions

摘要

Recent natural and man-made hazards such as 9/11, the Asian tsunami, and Hurricane Katrina have raised worldwide concerns. To facilitate the efforts of emergency management, this paper discusses the role of transportation modelling and simulation in these efforts, identifies the challenges faced by transportation modelling and simulation under extreme conditions, and proposes strategies to address some of the challenges. More specifically, the challenges are (a) simultaneous requirements on scale and detail, (b) lack of tools to model traffic operation under extreme conditions, and (c) lack of knowledge and data about extreme conditions. In response to the first challenge, a dynamic multi-scale resolution framework is proposed to achieve the two competing goals, i.e., modelling large-scale networks yet achieving fine details of traffic operations. In response to the second challenge, a nanoscopic approach is conceptually proposed to provide the finest details of traffic operations. A conceptual case study is presented to illustrate a possible application of the above simulation framework.