Uncertainty in basic short-term macroeconomic models with angel-daemon games

摘要

We propose the use of an angel-daemon framework to perform an uncertainty analysis of short-term macroeconomic models. The angel-daemon framework defines a strategic game where two agents, the angel and the daemon, act selfishly. These games are defined over an uncertainty profile which presents a short and macroscopic description of a perturbed situation. The Nash equilibria on these games provide stable strategies in perturbed situations, giving a natural estimation of uncertainty. We apply the framework to the uncertainty analysis of linear versions of the IS-LM and the IS-MP models.