NOVEMBER UPDATE

摘要

Turkey's demand for natural gas has increased significantly over the past 10 years. According to forecasts, this trend is likely to continue in the future. It seems Turkey's gas demand will almost double from 45bcm in 2012 to 81 bcm in 2030. Turkey is foreseen by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development's Economic Outlook as having one of the fastest growing levels of demand amongst OECD countries.1 The main driver of this growth is that 32.88% of the total generated electricity is generated from gas. Turkey's gas demand increases despite the government's target to reduce the share of gas in the electricity generation sector by replacing the gas with coal, renewable energy and nuclear power. Within the context of this demand growth, currently 99.2% of Turkey's gas supply relies on imports from abroad under long term gas supply contracts. The main contracts ensure supply of natural gas from Russia (55%), Iran (16%) and Azerbaijan (13%) via pipelines and LNG from Nigeria and Algeria (from Nigeria and Algeria in total 11%) via tankers. Moreover, Turkey occasionally imports spot LNG (5%) from various countries in order to meet fluctuations in natural gas demand. In the last few months there have been a few developments in the natural gas market which will assist in improving the market and opening up opportunities to foreign investors. Accordingly, we have focused on two specific areas: (a) the growth of opportunities for storage of natural gas; and (b) the development of a gas trading market within Turkey.