The triple shock from collapsed global crude oil demand, a 23% oil production reduction under the OPEC+ deal, and deep declines in private consumption and fixed investment will lead to a 4.3% contraction in Russian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020, followed by a modest 1.9% rebound in 2021. Fixed investment will continue to suffer large losses, as the economic decline sets in. Russian authorities have pledged over US$40 billion for financial rescue measures to alleviate the blow dealt to businesses and households. However, at only 2.8% of GDP, the bailout is insufficient to protect many small and medium sized businesses.
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