ENERGY POLICY REFORMS IN SOUTH AFRICA: DIFFICULT DECISIONS IN THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS AHEAD

摘要

The Republic of South Africa is an important player in regional but also in global energy and climate policies and it is currently facing several strategic decisions with respect to its transformation process. Traditionally, South Africa’s energy system was based on coal, which has contributed to 80% to total primary energy production, and 94% to electricity generation, respectively, in 2014 (IEA 2016). The construction of two new large-scale coal power plants, currently underway in the North of the country (Medupi and Kusile), of 10 GW of capacity indicates that South Africa will continue to rely on coal in the medium-term future. On the other hand, South Africa is currently pondering two important addition of its energy mix, i.e. i/ solar energy and ii/ nuclear power. i/ Driven by international trends, solar energy has experienced an unprecedented price drop, and now contributes a real alternative for centralized, but also decentral electricity generation. Eberhard and Karberger (2016) estimates that average generation costs are currently in the range of 6-7 US cents /kWh, and falling, which makes them competitive in many locations in the country. South Africa has favorable natural conditions for solar radiation, and some studies estimate that the potential of solar to be as high as 63% of primary energy supply (Altieri et al. 2015). However, the regulatory framework for the solar roll-out has yet to be defined, and critical issues such as financing, distributional consequences, and the necessary infrastructural requirements need to be addressed (Eberhard and Naude 2016). ii/ On the other hand, South Africa has also launched an important expansion plan for nuclear power, the capacities of which could increase by up to 500%, from currently 1.8 GW to about 10 GW, as stipulated in the expansion plan of the nuclear industry (van Wyk 2013). Traditionally, South Africa has relied on one nuclear power plant, located in Koeberg; in 2016, it supplied 15.2 TWh, corresponding to 7% of electricity generation. However, recently the government is negotiating several new development projects with international technology providers, and donors.