How Much Does the State of the Economy Influence the Popularity of Austrian Parties? An Empirical Investigation

摘要

We estimate popularity functions for the Austrian parties Austrian People's Party (OEVP), Social Democrats (SPOE) and Austrian Freedom party (FPOE) between 1987 and 2010 (using annual data) as well as vote functions for the same Austrian parties in the 86 election districts in the national elections in 1999, 2002, 2006 and 2008. In most cases we find a statistically significant and theoretically predicted influence of three economic variables, namely the unemployment rate, inflation rate and growth rate of income, on both popularity and voting behavior. However, this influence is not robust and shows a tendency to decline over time.