US Intelligence Performance and US Policy during the Polish Crisis of 1980-81: Revelations from the Kukliiiski Files

摘要

Drawing on intelligence documents that were recently declassified, this article assesses the quality of US intelligence analysis during the 1980-81 Polish crisis and the impact of the intelligence analysis on US policy toward Poland and the Soviet Union. After discussing the value and limitations of the declassified materials, the article raises questions about US policy during the crisis and discusses how intelligence inputs helped to shape policy. The newly available documents confirm that the US intelligence community's analytical products were often deficient and that these shortcomings put a crimp on US policymakers' choices.