森林火災を模擬した二次元インパクトモデルの定性的性質

摘要

Natural forest fires are the problems that influence ecosystems, and they have been researched from of old. For solving this problem, a prediction model for forest fires was proposed. The model imitates fires that are seen in mediterranean forests, boreal forests and savannas. In recent years, it was simplified a second-order impact model. Furthermore, the model of mediterranean forests have been analyzed. However, the others are insufficient yet, and the qualitative property of forest fires has not been discussed enough. In this letter, we analyze the second-order impact model that is seen in boreal forests and savannas. Moreover, we consider what bifurcation phenomena essentially influences some periodic solutions.%生態系に影響を及ぼす問題のひとつに森林火災があり，そrnの振る舞いは気候や発生条件によって様々な種類に分けらrnれる。複雑な火災の挙動を解明するため，R.Casagrandirnらは長期的・大域的な火災予測モデルを提案し，過去の観rn測データをパラメータに対応させることで，いくつかの地rn域における森林火災を常微分方程式で模擬した。