Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

摘要

Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias-corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non-structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.