Regional flood frequency analysis using Bayesian generalized least squares: a comparison between quantile and parameter regression techniques

摘要

Regression-based regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) methods are widely adopted in hydrology. This paper compares two regression-based RFFA methods using a Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) modelling framework; the two are quantile regression technique (QRT) and parameter regression technique (PRT). In this study, the QRT focuses on the development of prediction equations for a flood quantile in the range of 2 to 100 years average recurrence intervals (ARI), while the PRT develops prediction equations for the first three moments of the log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution, which are the mean, standard deviation and skew of the logarithms of the annual maximum flows; these regional parameters are then used to fit the LP3 distribution to estimate the desired flood quantiles at a given site. It has been shown that using a method similar to stepwise regression and by employing a number of statistics such as the model error variance, average variance of prediction, Bayesian information criterion and Akaike information criterion, the best set of explanatory variables in the GLS regression can be identified. In this study, a range of statistics and diagnostic plots have been adopted to evaluate the regression models. The method has been applied to 53 catchments in Tasmania, Australia. It has been found that catchment area and design rainfall intensity are the most important explanatory variables in predicting flood quantiles using the QRT. For the PRT, a total of four explanatory variables were adopted for predicting the mean, standard deviation and skew. The developed regression models satisfy the underlying model assumptions quite well; of importance, no outlier sites are detected in the plots of the regression diagnostics of the adopted regression equations. Based on ‘one-at-a-time cross validation’ and a number of evaluation statistics, it has been found that for Tasmania the QRT provides more accurate flood quantile estimates for the higher ARIs while the PRT provides relatively better estimates for the smaller ARIs. The RFFA techniques presented here can easily be adapted to other Australian states and countries to derive more accurate regional flood predictions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.