The present invention relates to a method of estimating the probability flood amount using an exponential flood algorithm among local frequency analysis, the method comprising the steps of: (a) flood data of various points are input to the main memory by the input device as input data; (b) reclassifying the region and iteratively calculating the inconsistency measure until the inconsistency measure does not exceed a certain threshold; (c) if the heterogeneity measure is H 1, reclassifying the area according to the experience and subjective judgment of the expert as a user and repeating from step (b) until H 1; (d) sequentially estimating the parameters and performing the Z-test by substituting the L-moments into the parameter calculation formulas of the four probability distributions until a probability distribution type passes the Z-test; (e) The Z-test of step (d) is a conformance measure Z DIST Is calculated, and (f) q (F), which is an inverse function of the probability distribution type, to which the estimated local parameter values of the probability distribution type that first passed the Z-test among the four probability distribution types in step (d) are applied. By estimating the estimator and estimating the probability flood at point i, and it is possible to increase the applicability of the exponential flood method with an algorithm that can obtain a reliable probability flood easily and with little time and effort. have.
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