Estimation on the influence of uncertain parameters on stochastic thermal regime of embankment in permafrost regions

摘要

For embankments in permafrost regions, the soil properties and the upper boundary conditions are stochastic because of complex geological processes and changeable atmospheric environment. These stochastic parameters lead to the fact that conventional deterministic temperature field of embankment become stochastic. In order to estimate the influence of stochastic parameters on random temperature field for embankment in permafrost regions, a series of simulated tests are conducted in this study. We consider the soil properties as random fields and the upper boundary conditions as stochastic processes. Taking the variability of each stochastic parameter into account individually or concurrently, the corresponding random temperature fields are investigated by Neumann stochastic finite element method. The results show that both of the standard deviation under the embankment and the boundary increase with time when considering the stochastic effect of soil properties and boundary conditions. Stochastic boundary conditions and soil properties play a different role in random temperature field of embankment at different times. Each stochastic parameter has a different effect on random temperature field. These results can improve our understanding of the influence of stochastic parameters on random temperature field for embankment in permafrost regions.