»Firm markets beyond corona«

摘要

Tonnage shortages won't suddenly disappear if the world goes back to normal after the pandemic, says Burak Cetinok, head of research at Arrow Shipbroking in London. However, new environmental regulation will aggravate a two-tier market, the trained economist and engineer explains. The pandemic and its socio-economic effects are causing turmoil in most shipping segments. For some (containers) it turns out favourable, for others less so (tankers). How quickly will market conditions readjust if corona gets brought under control? Burak Cetinok: I don't expect abrupt changes in the market in the second half - rather a gradual stabilisation. Containers benefited from surging pandemic-related exports last year. Demand for stay-at-home goods and PPE is likely to ease as economies reopen. However, general consumer goods demand is likely to revive, with the latter effect far outweighing the former. I also expect congestion to persist, increasing inefficiencies and keeping fleet utilisation high. With Chinese demand at multi-year highs and the rest of the world coming back to life, I expect global dry bulk demand to remain strong. Coupled with slowing fleet growth, dry bulk earnings should remain firm for the rest of the year.