2018 - the nadir in the tanker market?

摘要

In 2018, fleet growth for both crude and oil product tankers were low. But as the demand growth was even lower, freight rates hit the lowest level ever. The overcapacity in the market expanded, says BIM-CO's chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand, »The tanker market is really a curious case these days,« he puts it. In the VLCC sector, the market had seen the highest number of ships sold for demolition, 34 units until December 2018. This matched the number of 1999, which had been the highest since 1986. But volatility has returned to the tanker market in Q4 2018. Conditions across the crude and products markets have seen rapid improvement. BIMCO had expected freight rates to improve in Q3 and Q4, but what happened with crude oil tankers wasn't foreseen: Freight rates made an exceptional comeback. Monthly average VLCC earnings in April and May were below 4,000 $/day, they moved up to 7-8,000 $/d in June and July and 11,000 $/d in August and September - all in the loss area. But October saw average earnings shoot up to 33,500 $/d. Oil product tankers were still suffering, despite somewhat higher freight rates in early November.