Forecasting key indicators of China's inbound and outbound tourism: optimistic-pessimistic method

摘要

Institute for Grey Systems and Decision Sciences, GreySys Foundation, Lahore, Pakistan; 3Institute for Grey Systems Studies, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China; Purpose - Tourism industry is a highly complex system surrounded by many uncertainties because of its innumerable connections with other supporting systems. Considering tourism, a grey system, the current study proposes optimistic-pessimistic method (OPM). This technique can aid in improving forecast accuracy of four tourism-related indicators, inbound tourism to China, outbound tourism from China, revenues collected through inbound tourism and expenses incurred on outbound tourism. Design/methodology/approach - The study integrates OPM into EGM and then using the secondary data collected from the World Bank database, predicts the four tourism-related indicators. The mean absolute percentage error steered the performance of the models. Findings - One of the main contributions of the study lies in its overall evaluation of one of the major travel and tourism countries of the world in light of four crucial indicators. The study highlights, four tourism-related indicators' recent information, contains more valuable information about the future. Originality/value - OPM represents a novel application of concept of whitenization of interval grey number in grey forecasting theory.