Regional changes of precipitation characteristics in Northern Eurasia from simulations with global climate model

摘要

Characteristics of precipitation including mean precipitation, rain intensity, rain event probability and an index of extreme events from different global climate model simulations are analyzed. Results of numerical experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model (GCM) using anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 have been used. Simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM are compared to the observational data and ERA-40 reanalysis. The basins of major Eurasian rivers such as Volga, Ob, Yenisei and Lena rivers have been chosen for a detailed analysis. Scenario SRES-B1 and SRES-A2 simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM for the 21st century demonstrate an increase of winter precipitation, its intensity and rain event probability as well as heavy precipitation in the catchments areas of Volga, Ob, Yenisei and Lena rivers. Trends for the summer rain intensity and heavy precipitation in the 21 st century are also positive but less significant than for winter trends. This is in contrast to the summer rain event probability, which has a negative trend in all analyzed river basins.