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Travel-Time Constraints on Destination-Choice Sets

机译:目的地选择集的旅行时间约束

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The importance of travel-time constraints in spatial choice is widely recognized in the literature of geography and related disciplines, but little work has been done toward developing operational models of spatial choice wherein these constraints and their effects are made explicit. The purpose of the paper is to test the accuracy of predictions produced by a destination choice model that does not take explicit account of travel constraints under the assumption that observed choices are made from choice sets delineated by a constraint of maximum travel time. Observed choices are generated by simulation from a new random utility model consistent with the constrained nature of individual choice sets. Results show that the characteristics of constraints are a decisive factor in the accuracy of the unconstrained choice model. Choice probabilities of the constrained reality are predicted with a reasonably good accuracy in some instances, but predictions are less impressive, and even poor, in many others.
机译:在空间选择中旅行时间约束的重要性已在地理学和相关学科的文献中得到了广泛认可,但是在开发空间选择操作模型(其中明确显示了这些约束及其作用)方面所做的工作很少。本文的目的是测试目标选择模型产生的预测的准确性,该模型在假设观察到的选择是由最大旅行时间约束所描绘的选择集合中做出的假设下,未明确考虑旅行约束。观察到的选择是通过模拟从新的随机效用模型生成的,该模型与各个选择集的约束性质一致。结果表明,约束特征是无约束选择模型准确性的决定性因素。在某些情况下,可以很好地预测受约束现实的选择概率,但在许多情况下,预测效果不那么令人印象深刻,甚至很差。

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