Distribution network operational risk assessment and early warning considering multi-risk factors

摘要

Under the impact of various uncertainties, the potential operation risk of the distribution network is gradually gaining more and more attention in both security and economy. To comprehensively determine the risk level, an operational risk assessment method considering multiple risk factors is proposed. Firstly, probabilistic models are established including temporal distributions of electric vehicles and uncertainties of renewable energy. Secondly, a time-sequential security risk assessment method with several security indicators including overvoltage risk, undervoltage risk, line-overload risk and load-loss risk is established using probabilistic load flow and dynamical sensitivity weight analysis method. Thirdly, conditional value at risk model is presented for time-varying economic risk considering line-loss risk and operational profit or loss risk of distributed generations. Finally, a risk early warning standard is proposed to realise the visualisation of risk warning by defining the risk level and risk area. Simulations of different scenarios are conducted on the modified IEEE 34-bus radial test system and the results reveal that the proposed strategy is effective and practical.