PLAUSIBLE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE ARID REGION OF NORTHWEST CHINA

摘要

This paper compared the climate change trends and its impacts on runoff of typical inland river basins in Northwest China during 1957-2010, based on the monthly hydrological and meteorological data of Tarim River, Hei River, Shule River and Shiyang River. Analytical results showed that the climate in the arid region of Northwest China had changed significantly with a specific pattern in the past decades. These included: (1) Temperature of the four inland rivers increased visibly, and with jump points occurred in 1986 in Tarim River and in the early 1990s in other three rivers. Precipitation increased in the four inland rivers, and the gravity center concentrated in the Qilian Mountains. The increasing rates of temperature and precipitation in the Shule River were the largest, with an average of 0.35℃/10a and 12.7 mm/10a, respectively, followed by that in the Hei River and the Shiyang River; the lowest one was in the river area of southern Xinjiang. (2) Runoff experienced an increasing trend for these rivers, except the Shiyang River which showed a decreasing trend. (3) The correlation between runoff and temperature was significant in the Tarim River, while runoff correlated with precipitation in the Hei River and Shiyang River, and high correlation with both temperature and precipitation in the Shule River. It mainly related to runoff recharge proportions from glaciers and precipitation had great effects on the relation between runoff and temperature and precipitation in different rivers.