Letters To The Editor

摘要

Michael Ross ("Blood Barrels," May/June 2008) argues that oil triggers conflict in three main ways: fluctuating oil prices lead to economic instability, which is followed by political instability; oil wealth supports insurgencies; and oil wealth encourages separatism. These factors are important, but Ross is too selective. Embedding them in a broader framework would be more illuminating and would better inform policy. The essence of the problem can be summed up in one word: fragmentation. In many resource-rich countries, politics involves vertical relationships of dependence based on the central source of wealth, and factions compete (or fight) for their share in a grand zero-sum game. This behavior is highly divisive, politically and socially; it reinforces existing fractures, such as ethnic, religious, or regional rivalries, and generates new schisms. As resources flow (or trickle) downward, politics splinters at all levels, from the high echelons of power to the village and even the family level. Other sources of economic rents and aid can have similar effects.