Designing intelligent disaster prediction models and systems for debris-flow disasters in Taiwan

摘要

Effective disaster prediction relies on using correct disaster decision model to predict the disaster occurrence accurately. This study proposes three effective debris-flow prediction models and an inference engine to predict and decide the debris-flow occurrence in Taiwan. The proposed prediction models are based on linear regression, multivariate analysis, and back-propagation networks. To create a practical simulation environment, the decision database is the pre-analyzed 181 potential debris-flows in Taiwan. According to the simulation results, the prediction model based on back-propagation networks predicted the debris flow most accurately. Moreover, a Real-time Mobile Debris Flow Disaster Forecast System (RM(DF)2) was implemented as a three-tier architecture consisting of mobile appliances, intelligent situation-aware agents and decision support servers based on the wireless/mobile Internet communications. The RM(DF)2 system provides real-time communication between the disaster area and the rescue-control center, and effectively prevents and manages debris-flow disasters.