Potential impact of global warming on wind power production in Central Asia

摘要

Global warming is affecting the Earth's surface temperature and consequently the intensity of near-surface airstreams and wind power potential in many regions. Conversely, global wind power installed capacity is continuously growing during the last years. The economic viability and sustainability of centralized wind projects relies heavily on wind resources, efficient technologies, and an attractive and dynamic Feed-in-Tariff (FIT). Therefore, this study assesses the potential effect of global warming on the life-cycle techno-economic viability of future wind power projects in Central Asia, specifically in Kazakhstan. Hence, the Ereymentau Wind Power Plant (WPP) in the Northern region of Kazakhstan was selected as case study. Historic data showed that monthly averaged wind speed and ambient pressure can be treated as statistically stationary, and only the air density drop due to temperature increase of 0.2°C per decade is assumed in the present study. Our results predict a reduction in Net Present Value, Benefit-Cost Ratio, and Internal Rate of Return of 29 million KZT, of 0.0015, and 0.03%, respectively, in the lifetime of Ereymentau WPP. Moreover, an Equity payback increase of 0.4 years and a drop of 987 tCO_(2e) in GHG emission reductions are projected. Consequently, our results indicate that global warming, despite of being a global problem of significance, would have a negligible impact in ongoing plans to develop the wind potential in Northern regions of Eurasian countries sharing similar conditions to those present in Ereymentau-Kazakhstan.