A fully automated and integrated multi-scale forecasting scheme for emergency preparedness

摘要

In this paper, we present one multi-scale integrated simulation technology for emergency preparedness with a holistic approach in hurricane, related storm surge and flood forecasting; infrastructure assessment; and emergency planning. This is an emergency management tool to aid the decision-makers and first responders in preparation for the appropriate response to an impending hurricane disaster. Three primary models, hurricane forecasting, storm surge, and overland flooding, are executed in sequence to generate the necessary results for the proposed integrated emergency planning and preparedness tool. Two of these are open source codes in the public domain and the overland flooding model is an "in-house" code developed by the authors. Using the results of the primary models, two secondary models are executed to assess local infrastructure vulnerability and to determine the optimal evacuation routes for impacted inhabitants. The results from each model are post-processed and saved as Keyhole Markup Language (KML) files that are viewable in Google Earth for overlay analysis and decision-making. Hurricane Katrina (2005) in the Mississippi coastal area is chosen as a case study to validate the developed tool. The models are run in sequence to generate the layers of data necessary during an actual event. The sequence is fully automated using Python and Shell scripts, which allow users to interact with each model through a series of Graphical User Interfaces. The development of technology described here would not only satisfy the scope of the project, but also be of great significance to national homeland security in the area of emergency preparedness and response.