Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

摘要

The distributed lag effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Kathmandu Valley are modelled using daily time series data. The extended exposure to PM_(10) is accounted for by assigning weights to daily average PM_(10) which decline geometrically as the lag period increases in days. Results show that the percent increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospital admissions and respiratory admissions including COPD, asthma, pneumonia, and bronchitis per 10 μg/m~3 rise in PM_(10) are found to be 4.85% for 30 days lag effect, about 15.9% higher than that observed for same-day lag effect and 3.52% for 40 days lag effect, about 28.9% higher than the observed value for same-day lag effect, respectively.