Trend predictions in water resources using rescaled range (R/S)analysis

摘要

Based on historical and observational data of wet-and-low water resource changes, this article used the rescaled range (R/S) analysis principle and method to calculate the H index and establish the relation formula of R(i)IS(i) and i. Based on {x_i}, and by using the least squares method, a new time series calculation method was proposed which endows the Brownian motion equation with forecasting abilities. This is a new attempt to forecast trend changes of water resources. Utilizing the time series data of water resources in Jinhua City, China, and the Brownian motion equation, aforecast was made of future trends in wet-and-low water resource changes. Satisfactory validation results were obtained, which indicate that this is an effective method for forecasting water resource changes.