Forecasting the market diffusion of disruptive and discontinuous innovation

摘要

This paper builds on existing knowledge of diffusion forecasting and integrates it with the disruptive and discontinuous innovation literature. Thus, a model is developed for forecasting discontinuous and disruptive innovations. This model takes into account the multiple markets served by discontinuous and disruptive innovation. The role of learning curve effects is also considered. Guidelines, based on the existing literature, are offered for the application of this methodology to forecasting the market diffusion of discontinuous and disruptive innovation. The ability to better forecast the market diffusion of disruptive and discontinuous innovation is especially important now since the convergence of many fields and advances in other areas are creating unprecedented amounts of disruptive and discontinuous innovation.