Forecasting of short-term traffic-flow based on improved neurofuzzy models via emotional temporal difference learning algorithm

摘要

Bounded rationally idea, rather that optimization idea, have result and better performance in decision making theory. Bounded rationality is the idea in decision making, rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make decisions. The emotional theory is an important topic presented in this field. The new methods in the direction of purposeful forecasting issues, which are based on cognitive limitations, are presented in this study. The presented algorithms in this study are emphasizes to rectify the learning the peak points, to increase the forecasting accuracy, to decrease the computational time and comply the multi-object forecasting in the algorithms. The structure of the proposed algorithms is based on approximation of its current estimate according to previously learned estimates. The short term traffic flow forecasting is a real benchmark that has been studied in this area. Traffic flow is a good measure of traffic activity. The time-series data used for fitting the proposed models are obtained from a two lane street 1-494 in Minnesota City, USA. The research discuss the strong points of new method based on neurofuzzy and limbic system structure such as Locally Linear Neurofuzzy network (LLNF) and Brain Emotional Learning Based Intelligent Controller (BELB1C) models against classical and other intelligent methods such as Radial Basis Function (RBF), Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) neurofuzzy, and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and the effect of noise on the performance of the models is also considered. Finally, findings confirmed the significance of structural brain modeling beyond the classical artificial neural networks.