Determination of acceptable operating cost level of nuclear energy for Turkey's power system

摘要

Generally, it is very difficult to assess the true operating cost of an electrical power unit in the countries where there is little or no operational experience. Since Turkey has no experience on operating a nuclear unit, operating costs of a nuclear unit is uncertain for use in generation expansion planning (GEP). Furthermore, there is a disagreement of whether it is cheap or not. In this study, an acceptable level of operating cost of nuclear units is determined for Turkey's power system. It is aimed to find a numerical value for nuclear operating cost at which nuclear is able to compete with other energy sources. Seven types of units are chosen as candidate units to the power system. Mixed-integer programming (MIP) is used as a mathematical model of generation expansion planning. The model consists of the cost function that minimizes the construction and operating costs and the reliability constraints. Adaptive simulated annealing genetic algorithm (ASAGA) is used for optimization algorithm to determine the types, times, and number of candidate units which meet forecasted demand within a pre-specified reliability criterion over the planning horizon from 2006 to 2025. In the case studies, a high level of nuclear energy operating cost is taken and then the cost is gradually lowered. Optimizations are made for each level of nuclear operating costs within four different scenarios and the quantities of nuclear capacity selected by optimizations are recorded. It is determined that, nuclear energy is able to compete with other energy sources when the operating cost is less than 210$/kWhyr or 2.4cent/kWh.