Research on optimization of hedging ratio of thermal coal futures in thermal power enterprises based on Delphi method

摘要

The enthusiasm of coal-fired thermal power enterprises to participate in coal futures hedging to avoid the risk of coal price fluctuations is increasing. The key to hedge operation is to determine the total coal inventory required by the power generation company according to the amount of electricity generated. Participating in the hedging of coal futures not only plays a role in avoiding the risk of price fluctuation, but also reduces the occupation of funds and improves the utilization ratio of enterprises' funds. When the total stock of the power generation enterprise has been determined, the optimal ratio of coal futures hedging is calculated scientifically, and then the virtual stock position of coal is calculated, and the actual stock and virtual stock of the coal are reasonably determined. This paper constructs the optimization model of coal hedging ratio of coal-fired thermal power generation enterprises, and innovatively puts forward the Delphi method to determine the three coefficients in the hedging ratio model based on the practical experience.