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Value Change in Oil and Gas Production Ⅵ. Buy-Out, Farm-Out, or Stand

机译:油气生产的价值变化Ⅵ。买断,农场出卖或摊位

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摘要

Often a corporation has an immediate cash need, either to avoid insolvency or for further opportunities it deems to be likely highly lucrative. In such a situation a corporation will often attempt to farm-out a percentage of a profitable field, or attempt a complete buy-out so that the corporation can meet its immediate cash needs. Here we show how one can quantitatively evaluate the farm-out price and fraction, or the buy-out price, most likely to lead to acceptance by a tendering corporation, and still maintain the highest chance of realizing the immediate cash needs. When parameters involved in the estimates of future field worth, future costs, and allied field-related parameters are themselves uncertain, we also provide a stochastic procedure that enables one to determine not only the greatest probability of a range of farm-out or buy-out prices being accepted, but which also enables one to determine which of the uncertain parameters is causing the greatest uncertainty. In this way one can see where to improve resolution should it be deemed necessary based on the total uncertainty and volatility of the estimated success chances. Numerical examples are given to illustrate all the various components of the deterministic farm-out considerations as well as the buy-out scenarios, and also for the uncertain parameter situations.
机译:通常,公司为了避免破产或获得它认为可能非常有利可图的更多机会而迫切需要现金。在这种情况下,公司经常会尝试出让一部分可赚钱的田地,或者试图进行完全买断,以便公司能够满足其眼前的现金需求。在这里,我们展示了如何定量评估最有可能导致招标公司接受的交易价和交易价或购买价,并且仍然保持最大的机会实现即时现金需求。当估算未来田地价值,未来成本和与田野相关的参数本身不确定时,我们还提供了一种随机程序,使人们不仅可以确定一系列农场或收购的最大可能性,价格被接受,但是这也使人们能够确定哪个不确定性参数导致了最大的不确定性。通过这种方式,可以基于估计成功机会的总体不确定性和易变性,来查看应该在哪里提高分辨率,应该认为有必要。给出了数值示例,以说明确定性耕作考虑因素的所有各个组成部分以及购买方案,以及不确定参数情况。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Energy Exploration & Exploitation》 |2003年第5a6期|p.361-379|共19页
  • 作者

    I. Lerche; S. Noeth;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Geological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, S. C. 29208;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 TK;
  • 关键词

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