So where does Sweden's refusal to join the euro leave the European Union? Three popular theories are doing the rounds. Call them "the inevitability of unity", "the possibility of fracture" and the "the threat of catastrophe". Supporters of inevitability theory do not believe that the Swedish no raises any fundamental question about the drive for "ever closer union" in Europe. In a magnificently condescending phrase, Die Welt, a German newspaper, put the referendum result down to "a certain provincial eccentricity of Swedes". A few Nordic weirdos, doubtless living in igloos inside the Arctic circle, will not halt the unstoppable momentum towards a united Europe. Indeed, a new European constitution, which EU governments next month will start negotiating about, should give the idea another big push. The "inevitabilists" point to history. In the past half-century, the EU has evolved from a modest coal-and-steel group of just six countries in 1952 to a union that, come next May, will number 25. There have been setbacks and crises before. But political and economic logic has driven the project forward, forcing many initially recalcitrant countries to join up. Don't worry about those Swedes and Brits, chortle the inevitabilists; even they will see sense in the end.
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